What effects do state-sponsored anti-LGBTQ measures have on voting behavior?
This question lies at the center of the new Humboldt GovLab study “The Electoral Effects of State-Sponsored Anti-LGBTQ Measures” (2025) by Violeta Ines Haas, Konstantin Bogatyrev, Tarik Abou-Chadi, Heike Klüver, and Lukas Stoetzer. Against the backdrop of the growing prevalence of anti-gender and anti-LGBTQ policies in many countries, the study addresses a dimension of these developments that has received little scholarly attention to date: their effects on individual electoral choices.
In countries such as Russia, Hungary, or Poland as well as in parts of the United States repressive anti-gender and anti-LGBTQ measures have become a common feature of political practice. Right-wing radical parties and religious groups in Western Europe and Latin America also increasingly oppose the LGBTQ movement. There are therefore strong reasons to examine more closely how these developments affect voting behavior.
Political effect of LGBTQ hostility has been unclear until now
While the cultural and institutional consequences of such rhetoric and policies have been extensively studied, far less is known about their political effects. To address this gap, the researchers from Humboldt GovLab and their partners employ a synthetic difference-in-differences design, a method particularly suited to estimating causal effects in quasi-experimental settings. The quasi-experiment underlying the study is the adoption of so-called “LGBT-free zones” by Polish municipalities. These resolutions were passed in some regions roughly seven months before the nationwide elections in 2019 and were actively promoted by the then-governing Law and Justice party (PiS).
Winner and loser parties
The results show that voter turnout declined significantly in municipalities that adopted such resolutions. The drop was particularly pronounced among supporters of opposition parties. At the same time, PiS achieved higher vote shares in these municipalities. In geographically adjacent municipalities where no such resolutions were adopted, these patterns did not emerge. Regional factors can therefore be ruled out as an explanation for the observed electoral outcomes.
The authors conclude that anti-LGBTQ rhetoric and policies strengthen the electoral base of the parties that promote them. They trace these effects back to two central mechanisms. First, through anti-LGBTQ measures, political elites send normative signals that communicate which behaviors are socially desirable and which are not. This encourages citizens who already hold negative attitudes toward the LGBTQ community to express these views more openly, thereby mobilizing voters who support incumbent parties. Second, anti-LGBTQ measures shape perceptions of political efficacy. Citizens with hostile attitudes toward LGBTQ people experience state repression as confirmation of their political influence. By contrast, individuals with liberal values feel politically disempowered, leading to lower levels of electoral participation. This pattern was clearly evident in the 2019 Polish elections.
Queer hostility as a broadly resonant issue
Overall, the study demonstrates that anti-LGBTQ rhetoric and policies have measurable effects on voting behavior. Supporters of such policies are more likely to turn out to vote, while opponents increasingly withdraw from the electoral process. The answer to the initial question is therefore clear: Yes, homophobia can contribute to electoral victory. The researchers therefore express concern that this dynamic may lead to a further increase in queer-hostile policies in the future.
