Right-wing parties are on the rise, in Europe as well as in the USA. And their political influence does not only begin upon entering government. In a recently published study, the Humboldt Governance Lab examines how the parliamentary presence of right-wing opposition parties affects government policy. The result is as clear as it is explosive: as soon as radical right-wing parties are represented in parliament, governments tighten their stance on migration.
Political scientists Heike Klüver and Fabio Ellger analyzed 165 coalition formations in 24 European democracies between 1980 and 2015. Using a unique dataset, they compared the discrepancies between parties’ election manifestos and the positions actually agreed upon in coalition agreements. This allowed them to precisely track when and where parties shift their political lines. The result: mainstream parties often adopt different positions in coalition agreements than those they advocated in their manifestos. According to the researchers, coalition negotiations offer the best time to shift positions, as these changes can be justified to citizens as necessary compromises. In this way, parties try to avoid being perceived as opportunistic by the electorate.
The study shows that established parties react strongly to changes in public mood. If support for right-wing parties grows, they adapt their policies in the hope of winning back lost voters. Right-wing parties, on the other hand, remain remarkably constant. They orient themselves toward their core electorate and stick to their positions.
The result is paradoxical and has significant political consequences: mainstream parties lose a substantial share of their votes in subsequent elections because they are perceived as lacking credibility. Right-wing parties, by contrast, benefit from their consistency and perform equally well or better. Adaptation thus proves to be a risky strategy. Minority governments that have already suffered losses in votes are particularly vulnerable to this dynamic. Interestingly, neither the size of right-wing parties nor the timing of their entry into parliament is decisive. Their mere presence is enough to trigger political shifts.
The study thus raises an uncomfortable question: should established parties resist the pressure and stick to their positions even in coalition negotiations to remain credible in the long term and take the wind out of right-wing parties’ sails? There is no simple answer. But one thing is clear: right-wing parties often change politics before they even govern.
